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DOI Prefix 10.20431 |
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Modeling the Relative Humidity in New Halfa Agricultural Scheme (Sudan)
Tariq Mahgoub Mohamed1*, Hisham Mohamed Hassan2, Mahmoud Abdelrahim Abdelgiom1
2.Department of Econometrics, University of Khartoum.
Citation : Tariq Mahgoub Mohamed, Hisham Mohamed Hassan, Mahmoud Abdelrahim Abdelgiom, Modeling the Relative Humidity in New Halfa Agricultural Scheme (Sudan) International Journal of Research in Environmental Science 2018, 5(2) : 23-28.
In this paper, linear stochastic approach with the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) based methods are used to model relative humidity for New Halfa Agricultural Production Scheme. Relative humidity has main influences on the crop production, crop protection and storage and this factor should be modeled for future design purposes. The realization analyzed spans from 2000 to 2014. An inspection of the original series confirms a yearly seasonal pattern. The results of PhillipsPerron (PP) test shows that this series is not stationary. This non-stationarity was removed using first order seasonal differencing (i.e. twelve-monthly) prior to the selection of the model. The SARIMA (1,0,0)X(0,1,1)12 model was choose as the most suitable for modeling monthly relative humidity for New Halfa Agricultural Production Scheme.